Ukraine 1
The war against NATO expansion
NATO is as much to blame as Russia for the current crisis in Ukraine. The news most western people read forget to mention this. Russia is at war against NATO expansion and I will explain why. All we need to decide is whether we want NATO, a defense alliance, to continue expanding east (most importantly into Ukraine), or stand down and strike a mutually benefitial security deal instead.
In the west we don't understand Russia at all. I meet intelligent people who hate russians and think Putin is mad. This is wrong and comes from unbalanced reporting. The current situation on the border to Ukraine is a good example, but the root problem has been ignored for far too long. Most people don't know it.
When Germany was reunified in 1990, the Soviet leader Gorbachev acknowledged it. This was a big thing because it meant Eastern Europe could transition away from the Soviet sphere of influence. In 1991 Ukraine separated from the Soviet Union which soon after dissolved. NATO's opponent during the cold war, the Warsaw Pact, was also dissolved.
In the 90s Russia had a hard time. They transitioned to a market economy, and clever businessmen saw an opportunity to loot the country. And looted it was. From everybody being dirt-poor some became insanely rich. They now own chunks of London, English football teams, etc. The Russian leader Yeltsin was a drunk like many russians. Up to the 1996 election he was so unpopular he could barely get 10% in the polls, but US sent a team of experts to turn the election and secure 4 more years of Yeltsin. Yes, they interfered with the election big time and later bragged about it.
In 2000 Yeltsin was replaced by Putin, a competent leader with healthy hobbies like judo, ice hockey and horse riding. You can like him or not, but he turned Russia up side down within record time. For the many russians who remember the hardship it's now Putin or chaos, ie. an easy choice. As for pro and contra Putin, there will be a future post.
NATO, having lost it's raison d'etre with the end of the cold war, had to reinvent itself. It found new conflicts like the civil war in Yugoslavia to interfere with. In Denmark we have zero public/political discussion about the role of NATO. Mostly we like it because it had a Danish general secretary for a while, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, and we just love when the world takes notice. This is ironical, because most sane people agree that Mr. Rasmussen's efforts in waging war in Iraq was a bad decision. He also championed a new foreign policy in Denmark, where we actively take part in "peace-keeping" missions around the world, including the occasional bombing that apparently comes with keeping peace. I will write more about this in another post.
Without much democratic scrutiny NATO has continued over the years to expand east. It is the most powerful alliance in the World so most smallish nations would want their protection. Poland and Czech Republic joined in 1999. The Baltic States and 4 other nations in 2004. Croatia and Albania in 2009. Recently also Montenegro and North Macedonia. I urge you to look at a map before you tell me that Russia should not worry about this! Remember the war in Georgia 2008? The Russo-Georgian War was very much a war to stop NATO expansion!
The discussion about whether promises were made to limit NATO expansion is somewhat important here. NATO itself argue they did not, referring to cherry-picked quotes by Gorbachev, but "forgetting" that Gorbachev in the very next paragraph insisted that the following NATO expansion has violated the spirit of the negotiations in 1990. True, no promises were given in writing, but spoken reassurements are well documented. When reading NATO argumentation you will notice that the hate towards Russia is palpable.
Much more can be said, but in short this brings us to present day. After having been ignored time and again, Russia has drawn a red line. They will accept no more NATO expansion towards Russia, or there will be war. In the news you will read that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent. This is false and stupid. I understand that Ukrainians would worry, but Russia will gain nothing from invading Ukraine, a hostile country (Note: Crimea was russian-friendly). An invasion would fail miserably and Russia would face crippling sanctions. I don't think NATO or USA would go into a direct war with Russia over Ukraine, they would just arm the ukrainians to their teeth. For USA this is actually a wet dream, as it would bog down their arch enemy, turn Europe even more firmly towards the west, and at the same time they could pretend to be the strong, grown-up in the room, while watching the spectacle from afar and sell a lot of weapons. This fits with Biden actually NOT promising Ukraine to fight their war. Putin knows this and does NOT want war. He just wants concessions, ie. a security deal and trust-worthy promises.
NATO is much too proud to give any kind of promise to their arch enemy. So what will happen? Well, just this week something very unusual happened in Denmark. We managed to actually communicate to the general public that Russia is against NATO expansion. Duh, finally! They've been screaming it for years, but it takes an army of 100.000 to get our attention. The news are still biased, but hopefully the public will listen and say:
So we can choose between war with Russia or stopping NATO expansion? Why on Earth would we choose NATO expansion? Are you mad?
So from here I just hope democracy will start working. That will not happen, of course. People will be frightened by the Russian force and back up NATO 100%. Russia probably knew this, but had no other options. At least now they have communicated their position to the general public in EU and down the road that may pay off. Maybe here or there someone will dare to question the continued NATO expansion.
My guess is that even though most people are taught to hate Russia, the situation at hand only enforcing that belief, they have no interest in entering a hot war to help Ukraine. Much better solution: make a security deal with Russia where NATO promises to stop and stand down, and Russia guarantees the sovereignty of Ukraine. NATO will squeel like a pig, but they need to be railed in and remember that they are a defense alliance. Crimea will be a big problem, because Russia will never again give it up, and it's hard to not dicuss it as part of a security deal.
The other option is to call their bluff, which is exactly what will happen. As mentioned above Russia has nothing to gain from a war, they want a concession. A concession won't be given presently, as NATO must appear never to give in to pressure. Instead European governments may be a bit more reluctant about future NATO expansions and we have an acceptable status quo. Russia has succeeded somewhat in making their point, and NATO can claim that they scared Russia off and use it as proof that the only thing Putin understands is power (they love that mantra).
